"Let men be wise by instinct if they can, but when this fails be wise by good advice." -Sophocles

Friday, May 4, 2007

Report Cards For First GOP Debate

It’s difficult to imagine that any Capital Cloak reader did not watch last night’s first GOP presidential candidates debate on MSNBC with rapt attention, but in case you missed it or only caught some of the mocking pre- and post- debate commentary from MSNBC, I offer my observations on and grades for each candidate and the moderators. Before I delve into those items, I have to express my absolute shock that a 90 minute debate featuring ten Republicans included not one mention of the 2nd Amendment gun control issue, particularly in light of the Virginia Tech massacre last month. Nor was there a question about gay marriage or a marriage amendment. This was truly baffling. If the debate was intended to help conservative voters determine which candidate shared their values, it fell far short by omitting two critical issues for most conservatives. A word on the grades I have assigned; the grades represent how the candidate performed in this debate and are not an indication of my endorsement of any candidacy. If this post seems rather long, well, remember there were 10 participants, all of them politicians who spoke for 90 minutes. Enough said on that! Now, on with the show:

Rudy Giuliani: grade B+
Memorable quotes:
-“We should never back down from terrorists.”
-“Ahmadinejad is clearly irrational. When our enemies look at the U.S. President, they have to see Reagan. They looked in Reagan’s eyes and in 2 minutes released the hostages.”
-“I hate abortion. I encourage adoption, but it’s an issue of conscience. A Woman should have choice.”
-“President Bush made the right decision on 9/20/01 by putting us on offense. The Clinton administration had left us on defense.”
-“I ran a city that was 5-1 Democrat.”

Observations: Giuliani was strong, as expected, on 9/11, national security, and tamper proof identification cards and databases to control immigration and provide monitoring of visiting foreigners. He pointed out that in the recent Democratic candidates debate none of the candidates even spoke the phrase “Islamic fundamentalist terrorists.” Giuliani was candid on abortion, clearly stating he wanted women to have the choice even if he is morally opposed to it. When asked whether he would welcome the overturn of Roe v. Wade, Giuliani stated, “it would be ok,” while the other candidates (except Gilmore) welcomed an overturn with great fervor. He also seemed ok if it were not overturned. This was hardly a reassuring answer for those concerned with his future Supreme Court nominees if elected. Giuliani also spoke in favor of amending constitution to allow naturalized citizens like Governor Schwarzenegger to run for president. He was not the only candidate to agree with that position, but appeared to be the one most blatantly pandering for “The Governator’s” endorsement. Voters seeking a candidate who will be tough on terrorism, crime, and national security likely heard what they wanted to hear, while social and judicial conservatives heard little to ease their concerns on abortion, gay marriage, and original intent constitutional advocates.

John McCain: grade B
Memorable quotes: In describing the applause on the House floor after passing the Iraq War emergency funding bill that contained a timetable for withdrawal, McCain asked, “What were they cheering on the House floor? Surrender?”
-“I will follow Bin Laden to the Gates of Hell.”
-“I would not have mismanaged this war.”
-On embryonic stem cell research, McCain stated, “I would fund it. It is a tough issue, but these embryos will be discarded or indefinitely frozen. We must do all we can to alleviate human suffering.”
-When asked if there were any names he was considering for cabinet positions other than Joe Lieberman, McCain stated, “Joe Lieberman, Joe Lieberman, Joe Lieberman.”
-On the same question, McCain added, “I don’t care if people with expertise are Democrats, I would ask them to come and serve their country and share their talents.”

Observations: McCain was clearly nervous and had difficulty with stammering and dry throat as he began each of his responses. However, he warmed to each topic and while delivering his answers he became more confident in his delivery. He made a mistake by pointing out to viewers that he was not the youngest candidate even though no one had raised the issue of his age. He also appeared irate when he felt he had been cut off by Chris Matthews before his time had expired, testily stating, “I thought I had a yellow light.” He was right, but he came across as easily angered and less than gracious. McCain (and later Romney) were the only candidates who directly named names in their critiques of Democratic leadership in the House and Senate, with McCain taking Harry Reid to task for his “this war is lost” remark. McCain stood firm on his support for embryonic stem cell research, but curiously he provided a weak response when asked what he would do to contain Iran’s nuclear program. On that issue, he advocated every conceivable form of political, economic, and diplomatic pressure, but did not agree with the assertion that Iran had crossed the line requiring military intervention. A follow up question from Matthews asked what McCain’s “trip wire” would be with Iran that would prompt a military response, and McCain listed Iran building a nuclear bomb as that trip wire. Duncan Hunter would later hammer McCain effectively on this “trip wire.” MSNBC’s post-debate analysts recognized McCain’s emotional, flustered initial responses, but appeared sweet on him while taking shots at Romney and Giuliani. This kid gloves treatment from the liberal media is precisely what fuels talk about McCain’s embrace of too many liberal ideas and his hero status among the MSM.

Mitt Romney: grade A-
Memorable quotes:
-“Don’t buy into the Demo pitch that the War on Terror is all about one person, Osama Bin Laden. This is a global jihad effort to topple all moderate Islamic governments and destroy freedom.”
-“Americans unite over faith. Our enemies divide by religion and faith.”
-“I vetoed tax increases hundreds of times as governor. I can’t wait to get my hands on Washington’s budget.”
-“We need to get more marriages before babies. The most important work we do is within the 4 walls of our homes.”
-When asked whether it would really be bad for America to have Bill Clinton living in the White House again, Romney replied, “You’ve got to be kidding! The only thing that would be worse than that would be to have the gang of three running the War on Terror: Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, and Hillary Clinton.”

Observations: Romney was well prepared, smooth in his responses, and clearly is comfortable with the media. He spoke passionately on strengthening national security, winning the Iraq War, and dealing aggressively to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. His response on what to do in Iraq was less than stellar because he did not talk about winning the war. Talk of preventing chaos upon our eventual withdrawal is not the same as stating that winning is what we should do before we pull out. Romney was firm on his stance against embryonic stem cell research, making a good case for adult stem cell use instead, even citing the research of a specific doctor who has had success without the need for embryonic cells. His responses on abortion helped viewers follow the progression of his position on government involvement while clarifying that personally he has always opposed abortion on moral grounds. Romney ducked the question of whether he would pardon Scooter Libby if he were were president, but he forcefully and with a full command of the facts of the case castigated the federal prosecutor for questioning Libby about the Valerie Plame CIA leak incident even though it had already been established that Libby was not the leak (Richard Armitage was). Romney’s defense of Libby could be viewed as a display of loyalty to President Bush and Vice President Cheney, as both will campaign hard for the GOP nominee next year. That cynical interpretation is unlikely, as it is widely rumored (for good reason, I might add) that President Bush and Former First Lady Barbara Bush already favor Romney in this race. MSNBC’s Scarborough stated after the debate that Romney is a skilled public performer and “pops” on stage, like Reagan used to. In short, in MSNBC’s estimation, if anyone came out of the debate bearing Reagan’s mantle, it was Romney.

Mike Huckabee: grade A-
Memorable quotes: “We gave our troops limited funds and many restrictions and told them ‘you have to do it with this.’ That was wrong.”
-When asked whether he would favor amending the constitution to allow naturalized citizens (Schwarzenegger in particular) to run for president, Huckabee looked at “The Governator” and stated, “After 8 years as president I would be happy to amend the Constitution for the Governator.”
-“We celebrate life. This separates us from the terrorists who strap bombs to their children and blow them up. When hikers get lost on Mt. Hood, we move heaven and earth to rescue them. When coal miners in West Virginia are trapped we go after them. Ours is a culture of life.”
-“My faith explains me, no apology for that. My faith affects my decision making process. One’s faith shouldn’t qualify or disqualify anyone from office. But we should be honest about the impact of our faith on who we are.”
-“It’s too early to give the Bush admin a final grade before the test is over.”
-“I know the Clintons better than anyone here and it would be bad for either of them to be in the WH.”

Observations: I was not as familiar with Huckabee as some of the other candidates, and his performance in this first debate was impressive and a pleasant surprise. He was not flustered by any questions, did not try to be all things to all people, and seemed most comfortable expressing his personal views without apology. That may be because he is polling so low he feels he has nothing to lose by his candor, but even so, he came across as personable, genuine, and well prepared on the issues and how to perform on stage. As someone who opposes amending the constitution for The Governator, Huckabee’s response on that issue was disappointing. On social issues, Huckabee pleased the conservative base by opposing embryonic stem cell research and abortion. When discussing national security, his responses were not as specific as Giuliani, Romney, or Hunter. Huckabee drifted more into the McCain ambiguity, citing platitudes but offering no clear indication of what he would do in Iraq or to contain Iran.

Duncan Hunter: grade B+
Memorable quotes: “Let’s not get to the edge of the cliff with Iran’s uranium enrichment. Iran has crossed the line already by moving weapons into Iraq that are killing our troops. America already has license to use any force necessary to halt Iran’s efforts in Iraq.”
-Responding to a question about illegal immigration, Hunter described the border fence erected in his Congressional district in San Diego, “It’s a double fence. it’s not that scraggly little fence you see on CNN. I built that fence. And we have made an enforceable border.”
-“The dumb trade deal we signed with the rest of the world is killing our manufacturers. We need to give tax breaks to businesses that stay in US and hire American workers.”
-“China is cheating on trade and we are losing our industrial base. China is an emerging threat.”

Observations: Hunter was another somewhat pleasant surprise, and as expected, he was the most forceful on winning the Iraq War and keeping America on a strong defense footing, reminiscent of Reagan’s peace through strength philosophy. His response on what should be done about Iran came as a direct slap at McCain, who declined to state he would commit to military action against Iran until they were building bombs. Hunter seized on that and offered his terrific rebuttal quoted above. The edge of the cliff analogy was very effective and made McCain seem like an appeaser by comparison. Hunter was emotional when answering questions about Iraq, but given his son’s military service there it would be more troubling if Hunter spoke dispassionately about the topic. I felt he made a good point about our trade policies and how they are hurting American businesses while strengthening China, an emerging potential threat. Unfortunately he continued making that point in more than one answer, and came across on trade like Ahab fixating on his white whale. Hunter needs to do a lot more research and work on issues dear to the hearts of social conservatives, as his responses on Abortion and stem cells were canned platitudes that seemed far less genuine than Huckabee’s, Romney’s, McCain’s or even Giuliani’s.

Tommy Thompson: grade B
Memorable quotes: “We should require the Maliki government to vote on whether they want us there to give us credibility for our mission in Iraq.”
-“Republicans lost their way. We came to change Washington and Washington changed us.”
-“As governor of Wisconsin I vetoed 1900 things.”

Observations: As you can see from the short list of memorable quotes, I did not find Thompson’s performance compelling or memorable. Thompson was the proverbial deer in the headlights when asked a question about homosexual rights in the workplace. I could have sworn I heard crickets chirping as the camera captured his furrowed brow while no words came out of his mouth. It was an awkward question, but his delay was the unmistakable sign of a politician searching not for the answer he truly believes but rather the one he has to say out of political correctness. He was not much better when asked whether he was for federal funding of embryonic stem cell research. He argued that he could not answer yes or no because too much research is in progress to make such a determination. Thompson needs to remember that there will always be research going on, in every field, but leaders have to make decisions often without the final piece of a puzzle. If Thompson ever expects to rise above single digits in any polls, he will have to learn to answer debate questions with confidence and in full. After 90 minutes of debate no one had any idea where he stood on stem cells, and it was a yes or no question. Evasiveness is never a good trait in a leader.

Tom Tancredo: grade C
Memorable quotes: Corruption is not unique to the Republican Party. It is a failure of individuals.”
-“No more platitudes! Let’s see clearly who is where on the immigration issue.”
-“We must appeal the 16th amendment and adopt a fair tax”(consumption tax).
-“Stem cell research is morally reprehensible in many ways.”

Observations: Tancredo had perhaps the toughest sell, given the way the media has pigeon-holed him into one issue, illegal immigration. If nothing else, Tancredo is principled, leaving no doubt about his opposition to abortion, the border, or embryonic stem cell research. In fact, he was so firm in his views on embryonic stem cells that he called Nancy Reagan’s cause celebre “morally reprehensible” with her seated in the front row looking directly at him. If he could do that, he would likely succeed in staring down Putin or Ahmadinejad if called upon to do so, but it was a tactless way to phrase it, especially while other candidates made the same point without being ugly in front of the debate host. He came across throughout as the neighborhood crank, complaining about many issues but offering few solutions other than improved border security. He is an important figure insofar as he brings attention to issues, but did not display much in the way of leadership potential or charisma that could rally the party base to victory.

Sam Brownback: grade C-
Memorable quotes: None.

Observations: Brownback appears to be the GOP’s Al Gore, at least where delivery, vocal inflections, and facial expression are concerned. He was wooden most of the time, and when he was more animated he looked like a claymation figure compared to the smoothly animated Romney standing next to him. He offered some nice complements to the other candidates and made one salient point. Any one of the men on stage would be fine presidents compared to having a Democrat in the White House. Yet while Brownback sang “koombaya” his opponents were separating themselves further from him in the polls by answering with more than generalities and clichés.

Ron Paul: grade D
Memorable quotes: None

Observations: Viewers do not like to be scolded, and Ron Paul is a scolder. His whining attacks on the Iraq War drowned out anything of substance he tried to express on other issues. His libertarian philosophies hold some appeal, especially regarding strict interpretation of the constitution’s original intent, but the messenger in this case does not represent the message well. The most telling moment for Paul came when he was asked to provide an example of a time when he had to make a critical crisis decision. He had no answer, and stated as much. Struggling to come up with something, he attempted to portray his 5 year history of votes against the Iraq War as an answer to the question, which it was not. He further attempted to explain that perhaps his decision to run for president might count. Neither was even close to answering the clear intent behind the question. Giuliani could point to the morning of 9/11 for a host of critical decisions he made as mayor of New York. Romney could point to his jumping into the 2002 Olympic scandal and making critical decisions to rapidly solve the corruption and restore the image of Salt Lake City and the U.S. to the international community. He also referred to critical decisions made as governor of Massachusetts. Paul came across as an ideologue who has never actually confronted a crisis and resolved it with his personal leadership, and this permanently cemented his insignificance in the campaign.

Jim Gilmore: Grade D
Memorable quotes: None
Observations: Was Gilmore on stage? I do not recall him saying anything compelling or that distinguished him in any way from his opponents. I do remember laughing when he stated, in response to the question asking him to explain a time when he had to make a critical decision in a crisis, that when 9/11 occurred he was governor of Virginia and participated on a committee to address security issues with federal, state, and local government agencies. Only a politician would equate sitting on a committee with actually handling a crisis. If there is time to form a committee and discuss matters before reaching decisions, where is the crisis?

Moderator Chris Matthews: grade B
Observations: Matthews was tough on Romney and Giuliani, cutting them off in mid-sentence more than the others as well as asking them more follow up questions. He was fairly good at keeping the debate moving. Matthews did little to disguise his disdain for each candidate and if Tony Snow had been there, he would have chastised Matthews for asking questions in a “snarky” manner. Still, considering it was an MSNBC production, it could have been worse.

Matthews and the Politico.com co-moderators did ask some interesting questions:

Q-To Romney from Politico reader- What do you like least about America? This was the dumbest question of the night and it threw Romney for a loop because he is not part of the hate America crowd. I am glad he could not come up with anything but instead praised America for what it has been and will yet be.

Q- Matthews to Gilmore and Tancredo- Is Karl Rove your friend? Would you employ Karl Rove?- This was the second dumbest question and the candidates treated it accordingly.

Q- Politico reader- What’s with all the Republican corruption? The follow up to this was “What have you learned no to do from the GOP corruption scandals?” Right. That question wasn’t intentionally used as a double slam of the GOP.

Q- Would it be bad for America to have Bill Clinton back living in the White House? Matthews asked this of all, and all said no but Romney and Huckabee stated it best as quoted above.

Final Observations:
I noticed that Giuliani and Romney defended each other on the need for “tamper proof” identification cards when Matthews and other candidates misunderstood the issue and thought the cards were meant as a national ID card for all Americans. Romney had to wave down Matthews to clarify that the cards were only for visiting foreigners as a security and immigration tool, and Giuliani backed Romney by adding that the cards were not meant for all Americans. That ended the issue as no one had any reason to oppose it once they understood it. During that exchange, Romney and Giuliani clearly looked at each other, and it appeared that they had discussed this issue with each other previously and had formed an alliance of sorts. Could this be a harbinger of things to come, such as a Giuliani-Romney ticket? That was the impression I had when listening to their views, and observing their demeanor toward each other.

One thing we definitely learned is that when it comes to courage, the GOP is head and shoulders above the DNC. Whereas the DNC refuses to participate in any debates sponsored by FOX News, the GOP was willing to have its candidates appear on a notoriously biased network with a sneeringly biased moderator in Matthews without backing down or taking their ball and running home like the Democrats did from the Nevada debate sponsored by Fox. That debate was canceled on account of cowardice.

Ten candidates is six too many for any substantive debate to occur, but in this first test of the candidates mettle, they performed admirably, though not spectacularly. I would gladly have exchanged Tommy Thompson for Fred Thompson and Sam Brownback for Newt Gingrich, and then we could have learned a lot more about who the nominee will be. Two critical influences were not present, and while they are smart to avoid the dogfights of the early debates, it makes me resent that they will surely swoop in at the last minute and erase the work of these candidates without spending a dime or stepping in the ring to trade blows.

Who won the first debate? Out of the three serous contenders on stage, Romney came out on top, with Giuliani and McCain neck and neck behind him. Out of those with little hope and thus nothing to lose, Huckabee was stellar. Taking the field as a whole, I would rate Romney first, in part because there were more direct and thorny questions posed of him first than Huckabee, who was served a lot of softballs by “hardball” Chris Matthews but still deserved a close second place.

I’m already looking forward to round two.

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