Deadline for War with Iran: Dec 31

I have warned repeatedly here on Capital Cloak that the roller coaster-like predictions found in American intelligence estimates on how soon Iran could produce sufficient weapons grade uranium to build nuclear bombs were dangerously underestimating Iran. As reported previously, the IAEA warned that Iran had overcome the technical glitches that experts were certain would delay Iran’s centrifuges from reaching peak production levels for several years. For readers trying to make sense of the various and often conflicting intelligence estimates, perhaps the best indicator of Iran’s progress is to observe Israel’s preparation and examine carefully the statements of Israeli officials. Using that barometer, Israel appears to be feeling intense pressure building toward military action against Iran.

In today’s New York Sun, reporter Eli Lake, whose work is consistently excellent, wrote an ominous article revealing that Israeli officials meeting with their diplomatic and defense counterparts in Washington are urging the U.S. to establish a deadline for the end of diplomacy with and sanctions against Iran if it fails to dismantle its nuclear program. Israel made it clear that it considers the end of 2007 to be the date of no return, after which actions beyond sanctions and diplomacy must be taken, which clearly is a not-so-subtle reference to military force. Israel’s patience with international efforts to convince Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions has been a source of speculation, but the selection of a specific deadline demonstrates that Israel’s own intelligence estimates from Mossad are predicting that Iran is likely to produce sufficient weapons grade uranium for a bomb in 2008. While cherry blossoms bloom in Washington next Spring, Israel is convinced that nuclear bombs will be budding in the Natanz facility, and that bud must be nipped if December 31, 2007 passes without Iran caving to international pressures.

From Lake’s Sun article:

A senior Israeli delegation, here for strategic talks with top American government officials, is calling for an expiration date on the diplomatic approach to Iran of the end of the year.

Speaking to the Israeli press on Wednesday evening after meeting Secretary of State Rice, Israel's deputy prime minister, Shaul Mofaz, said, "Sanctions must be strong enough to bring about change in the Iranians by the end of 2007." According to a source familiar with discussions yesterday with the undersecretary of state, Nicholas Burns, Mr. Mofaz said, "Technical developments for the Iranian nuclear program will not follow a linear progression," a clear warning that America's official estimate that Iran will not attain an atomic bomb for at least five years could be dangerously optimistic.

....Channel 2 News in Israel reported that Mr. Mofaz said Israel would take military action if Iran did not cease its uranium enrichment by year's end. However, a source familiar with yesterday's discussions disputed the Channel 2 report. Mr. Mofaz only alluded to such action in the meeting, the source said, saying, "All options are on the table" if the diplomacy with Iran does not work.

….Publicly at least, Prime Minister Olmert has not said he would unilaterally bomb Iran. Last year he appointed one of Israel's most hawkish politicians, Avigdor Lieberman, as a deputy prime minister and announced that Mr. Lieberman would oversee Iran policy. Other Israeli politicians such as a former premier, Benjamin Netanyahu, have openly called for Israel to take out the known Iranian nuclear facilities. Within the American intelligence community, there is some debate about Israel's capabilities in this regard.

Some argue that the Israelis still lack the midair refueling capacity they would need to conduct a bombing mission over Iran as a unilateral move.

Other analysts, however, point out that Israel's fleet of American made F-15s has such refueling capacity, not to mention the capability of Israeli nuclear submarines. On background, Israeli former military officials have told The New York Sun that the option of a unilateral strike is there for Israel should Israel choose to take it.

America’s intelligence agencies are gambling that Iran will need up to four years to produce a nuclear bomb. The IAEA does not share that view and predicts that Iran will succeed much sooner. Israeli Mossad’s estimates have generated sufficient concern within the Israeli government to set a deadline for the end of sanctions and diplomacy, a deadline that will arrive in 6 months. If Israel’s intelligence proves accurate, and it usually is far more reliable in that region than our own, war with Iran could begin as early as January 2008. America’s early presidential election primaries next year may center on electing a new president during wartime. The entire complexion of the campaign will change as the deadline for war approaches, arrives, and opens the door to conflict with Iran. The smart and well-advised candidates will take the lead on this issue, particularly the GOP candidates who wish to establish their national security policy credentials. It would not surprise me in the least if Hillary Clinton stakes out a hawkish position on Iran and declares her unwavering support for Israel’s security.

Israel has demonstrated throughout its history that it will do what is necessary for its national survival regardless of international opinion. Will America do likewise? A nuclear Iran would be a threat to all free nations, and Israel’s patience will reach its limit by the end of the year. The message from Israel’s delegation in Washington is clear: UN sanctions are not working, and do not appear likely to bring any change to Iran’s behavior; Iran is closer to weapons-grade uranium production than even the gloomiest estimates had previously predicted; and war, though not sought or desired, is now six months distant on the horizon unless Iran chooses responsibility rather than repercussions.

Technorati: Israel Iran Iranian Nuclear Program Uranium Enrichment Natanz UN Sanctions Diplomacy IAEA Deadline Nuclear Non-Proliferation Israeli Air Strike