From "Freakonomics" to "Freakoterror"?

Has NY Times blogger and co-author of the best-seller Freakonomics, Steven Levitt, unintentionally spawned a new phenomenon that could be referred to as “Freakoterror?” Levitt’s post to the Times’ Freakonomics blog yesterday titled “If You Were a Terrorist, How Would You Attack?” has generated much controversy in the media, with seemingly equal numbers condemning Levitt as irresponsible for giving terrorists ideas or praising him for getting ideas out into the open so counterterrorism officials can consider them and plan accordingly. Could Levitt's foray into issues beyond his expertise result in waves of attacks by "Freakoterrorists," inspired by the attack ideas submitted by Levitt's readers?

I will admit that my career involvement in threat assessment and security planning caused me to react initially to Levitt’s post title with a slight cringe. This was not because I think he was doing terrorists any favors with his amateurish attempt to address a deadly serious issue, but because such hypothetical questions tend to blur the distinctions between what law enforcement and intelligence agencies can prepare for realistically and grandiose attack plans that would be a nightmare but are ultimately unpreventable.

Much of the criticism directed at Levitt for his choice of topic centered on the notion that by soliciting readers to submit their ideas for effective terrorist attacks in the United States, Levitt was somehow providing terrorists with potential plans they may not have thought of previously. That logic is flawed on several levels: First, it is a misguided assumption that radical Islamic terrorists read the Freakonomics blog. For argument’s sake, even if terrorist planners read Levitt’s blog, they would not have gained any knowledge they did not already possess; second, Levitt would not have been accused of helping terrorists if he had merely posed the question a different way. For example, if Levitt had asked his readers to submit their best ideas for an action movie involving a terrorist attack in America, as former CIA officer Bruce Schneier did last year, his readers would have proposed the same ideas, using their imaginations to attempt to concoct “realistic” terrorist attacks that would make for riveting film entertainment.

Some authors or screenplay writers have proven prescient, such as Tom Clancy’s novel Debt of Honor, in which a large jet was flown into the U.S. Capitol building during a State of the Union speech, wiping out most high-ranking government leaders. Did al Qaeda come up with the 9/11 plot after gathering around a campfire in Afghanistan and listening to Clancy’s book on tape? Of course not. Drawings of aircraft ramming American buildings were found in Ramsey Yousef’s dwelling during the investigation of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, two years before Clancy’s novel was published. It should surprise no one that terrorists are perfectly capable of hatching effective and original plots without the help of creative geniuses in American literature or Hollywood.

It is a testament to our arrogance that so many condemned Levitt based on the belief that terrorists lack the intelligence to come up with thousands of hypothetical plans on their own, without help from New York Times readers. Such thinking misses the mark. While western counterterrorism officials go home each day to eat, sleep, and interact with their families as much as their demanding schedules permit, radical terrorist planners go “home” by moving from one part of daily training camp to another, caves or tents, eating while discussing potential methods of attack, and relaxing around the campfire at night by tossing out hypothetical attack plans for debate. That is their life and the sole purpose to which they have dedicated themselves.

Levitt’s hypothetical plan, imagined shortly after the DC Sniper rampage, involved a score of armed terrorists driving around in cities of various sizes randomly shooting citizens. That was his suggestion for a terror attack that would meet his proposed criteria for fear inducement and low potential for the attackers to be captured or killed. Levitt is a professor of economics, not a counterterrorism analyst, thus it was not surprising that his proposal was not particularly imaginative.

Reader submissions, on the other hand, offered a variety of plot ideas that ranged from beautiful female Lara Croft versions of al Qaeda to Molotov cocktails constructed only with items purchased in airport terminal Duty Free shops, including gift cigarette lighters that are now allowed on flights after the TSA ban was lifted. Liberal readers argued that the terrorist threat is greatly exaggerated by the Bush administration to keep Americans in fear and Republicans in office. One reader suggested that it would be simple for terrorists to acquire automatic weapons, cross the U.S.-Mexico border, and shoot up movie theaters in south Texas, further alleging that the reason that has not happened under Bush’s watch is that such threats are concocted by the government to enslave fearful citizens.

It is obvious that the author of that comment underestimates, or more likely avoids discussions of one important reason why we have not seen attacks of that nature on American theaters, restaurants, or shopping malls, and especially such establishments in Texas: the 2nd Amendment. Yes, it would be relatively easy for a determined terrorist to acquire a weapon and go on a rampage at a mall. Non-terrorists have done that, as recently as February at Trolley Square Mall in Salt Lake City. That gunman killed several people, but was cornered and shot by an off duty police officer who had been dining at a mall restaurant. That is the key obstacle for organized plots for terror attacks at public places in America: the terrorists cannot predict how many average citizens among the potential victims is carrying a firearm and could thwart the plot before it achieves its goal of mass casualties.

This, among other reasons, is why gunmen plotting mass casualties like the Columbine killers or the Virginia Tech shooter focus on schools. Students are not allowed to carry guns on campus, thus the possibility of resistance is greatly reduced. Some commenters clearly missed another Clancy novel, The Teeth Of The Tiger, in which Islamic terrorists attempt a firearms rampage in a Northern Virginia shopping mall and are killed by off-duty counterterrorism operatives who resided in the area.

Such an attack might work in Britain or other “enlightened” European nations that have banned gun ownership by citizens, but Americans present a well-armed and action-oriented populace that would not easily be cowed into submission. American malls, theaters, and restaurants are filled each night with men and women who carry firearms and are willing to use them to preserve the lives of their families and fellow citizens. I can assure Levitt’s commenters that terrorists would not do much damage in a Texas (or Northern Virginia) theater or mall before being brought to justice by an armed movie-goer. Those clothing bulges aren’t concealing food smuggled into the movies to avoid high concession stand prices!

While Americans love to conjure up imaginative conspiracy theories, movie plots, or methods terrorists could use to attack us, ultimately the exercise is futile. Counterterrorism officials, limited as they are by budget constraints, must pick and choose which forms of attack are most probable, and dedicate resources and assets accordingly. Americans rightfully do not want to live in a police state or pay the terribly burdensome taxes that would be required to fund efforts to secure the country against all possible attacks. The alternative to a police state is what we see currently: government doing what it can with available resources, combining forces with an armed and vigilantly observant populace, knowing that we will be attacked but hoping to thwart as many attempts as possible.

In the end, it is good that we have Tom Clancy’s and others with active imaginations among us to help citizens think tactically and be more aware of their surroundings and potential targets in their communities. In a war against a radical ideology that devalues innocent life, preparation is not paranoia.

Technorati Tags:
Steven Levitt, Freakonomics, Freakoterror, Terrorist Attack Plans, 2nd Amendment, Counterterrorism, Tom Clancy, Mall Shootings, Bruce Schneier, Deterrence, War on Terror

Blogs, Radio Talkers Use Mall Killer's Muslim Affiliation for Shock Value: Ignore Youth's Traumatic Escape from Bosnian Genocide

Are conservative blogs and news sites exploiting the fact that the Trolley Square Mall shooter, Sulejman Talovic, was Muslim simply to attract site traffic? Elaine Jarvik, Deborah Bulkeley, and Ben Winslow of the Deseret Morning News (Salt Lake City) provided two very important follow-up articles in today’s edition about the slayings at the Trolley Square Mall earlier this week. Jarvik and Bulkeley took conservative sites to task for declaring, without any evidence, that because Talovic was Muslim he must have engaged in “Sudden Jihad Syndrome” as argued by Jihad Watch.

The authors cite emotion-inducing headlines from Little Green Footballs and MichaelSavage.com as incorrectly distilling the tragedy in Salt Lake City down to a single theme: “Salt Lake City Killer Was a Muslim.” As a regular reader of both sites criticized in this article, and as Spy The News! readers know, I have dedicated a career to countering ideologies like radical Islam. However, I sided with the authors in their assessment that the shooter’s religion played an important role in the incident, but not for the “jihadist” reasons headlined by Jihad Watch and Little Green Footballs.

Before casting stones at Muslims in general or specifically Sulejman Talovic himself, perhaps news sites and bloggers should have delved into the background of this young man prior to publishing scathing headlines designed to incite hatred and fear.

The second Deseret Morning News article, by Ben Winslow with the assistance of a Bosnian news reporter, described in great detail the experiences that make the Trolley Square shooter very different from the teen slayers at Columbine or other youthful murderers. The article, “A Child of Violence: Talovic Survived Genocide,” should cause many to rethink their assumptions that Talovic acted out any “jihad” impulse. While it is true that he was Muslim, there is no evidence he was active in any local mosques and most of his ties to regular Islamic worship were cut when his family emigrated to the U.S. after five years as refugees from Milosevic’s genocide in Bosnia.

From Winslow’s article, the following excerpts shed light on what Talovic experienced at the tender age of 7 and through more than 5 years of his youth. Spy The News! urges readers and fellow bloggers to see the forest in this situation (suffered genocide trauma), and not merely the trees (he was Muslim):

As a little boy in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Sulejman Talovic hid in fear from the Serb military forces who were slaughtering Muslim men and boys as war and genocide ravaged his country . . . . neighbors also acknowledged that the war in Bosnia likely left its mark on the boy. During the war, the family lived for five years as refugees in Bosnia, and spent almost a year in the mountains hiding from the Serb military forces, neighbors said. Up to 200,000 people were killed and 1.8 million others lost their homes in Bosnia's 1992-95 war. . . .

The war in Bosnia-Herzegovina forced the Talovic family to live as refugees. From 1993 until they emigrated to the United States in 1998, they were on the run, moving from village to village.

They lived near Srebrenica, where more than 8,300 Muslim boys and men were killed in 1995 by Serb forces loyal to ex-Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milosevic. Sulejman Talovic was 7 years old then.

The atrocities of war and "ethnic cleansing," and the pressures of daily life in a new country after he immigrated to the United States, could have created immense pressure on Talovic, according to Greg Jurkovic, a psychology professor at Georgia State University who has studied Bosnian teenagers in both Atlanta and Sarajevo.

"What we're finding is that so many of these kids are suffering from PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder)," he said. "What seems to be most important is what they were exposed to, their war exposure." [emphasis added]

Some argue that because he survived genocide against Muslims at the hands of “Christian” Serbs he was thus acting out a desire to kill infidels when he entered the Trolley Square Mall. However, that conclusion ignores the fact that the genocide was a personally traumatic experience that scarred the boy psychologically. Perhaps the authors of Little Green Footballs and Jihad Watch should visit the psychiatric emergency units at various Veterans Administration hospitals to witness firsthand the mental illnesses produced by battlefield trauma. Schizophrenia (acute or paranoid types), Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, sleep disorders, Bi-Polar Disorder, and these merely scratch the surface of what one finds. The veterans in those wards were combatants in wars they may or may not have understood, at ages similar to Talovic’s youthful eighteen years.

Many of these precious veterans have attempted suicide with various weapons or available household items; many have assaulted family members they love and responding law enforcement, not because they truly wanted to hurt anyone but because they were no longer in control. A break from reality, or psychotic episode, can occur rapidly or gradually, and the fact that Talovic was calmly walking through the mall does not indicate he was acting rationally or with legally defined criminal intent. A comparison of PTSD manifestations in a U.S. Military veteran and in Talovic is enlightening. Consider the tragic situation of just one Marine, Jonathan Schulze:

Schulze, a machine gunner and a corporal, had fought in Iraq in battles where Marine casualties were high. He had told his family that he felt guilty that he had lived and close friends had died [emphasis added]. He left the Marines in late 2005 after four years of service.

Schulze's stepmother said that she witnessed Jonathan telling VA staff workers in St. Cloud that he felt like killing himself. She said she also heard him tell a VA counselor over the phone the next day that he was suicidal. After that conversation he told his stepmother that he learned that he was No. 26 on a waiting list for admittance to the St. Cloud psychiatric unit.

The St. Cloud VA has no waiting list for its locked, acute psychiatric unit -- where suicidal or homicidal veterans would be taken . . . [emphasis added]

Two other members of Minnesota's congressional delegation expressed concern about the VA's ability to cope with a growing wave of troops returning from Iraq. Many of those veterans are expected to need counseling because of combat stress, lengthy separation from families, financial problems and other worries. [emphasis added]

"The hidden costs of this war are not being addressed," said Rep. Tim Walz, D-Minn., a member of the U.S. House Veterans' Affairs Committee and a veteran. "I've been deeply concerned. I think there's been almost nothing done to prepare for this."

Examine carefully the words or phrases emphasized in red. All of these were a part of daily life for Talovic. Survivor's guilt? Watching your friends and neighbors being exterminated while you manage to flee would cause that. This was also common among Jewish Holocaust survivors. Combat Stress? Being hunted for extermination in the middle of a war zone seems to fit that criteria. Separation from families? Talovic's extended family remain in Bosnia today. Financial problems? Talovic's family fled and lived in abandoned shacks, working odd jobs to survive in Bosnia until they could emigrate to America. In America Talovic's father and Talovic himself have worked many low wage jobs to provide for the family and save money to help bring family from Bosnia to the U.S. Other Worries? Wouldn't these other factors be enough? Add being a teenager in a new country, with few friends to the stresses already described, and a very different picture of Talovic emerges from the "Mall Killer is a Muslim" frenzy.

Note the use of the word "homicidal" by the VA hospital official. Clearly PTSD and other psychological problems stemming from war trauma have led some of our veterans to act on homicidal impulse. Is it so hard to imagine someone who had gone through what Talovic experienced acting similarly? Or is it just easier and more newsworthy to assume he killed because he was nominally Muslim?

Many who suffer mental illnesses are “high functioning” and it is only when you sit down to interview or visit with them does the paranoia become apparent. Talovic’s actions, although horrendous, likely had no connection to the U.S. War on Terror, the Iraq War, or jihad against America despite current events. America is where his family fled to in order to escape Bosnia and find safety. By all accounts, Talovic’s family had no ties to any groups sympathetic to radical Islam, and the FBI has ruled out terrorism in this incident. Talovic’s family worked various jobs in an effort to provide funds for extended family to emigrate to the U.S. as well. This does not appear to be the portrait of a jihadist family.

Ascribing Talovic’s actions to his religion itself or some jihadist mentality may have shock value in the headlines, but it omits the central factors of the incident: The perpetrator’s mental capacity and intent. Both of those were likely influenced tremendously by his childhood experiences in Bosnia. In our criminal justice codes, those with mental illness or even “temporary insanity” are judged by different and more compassionate standards than criminals with clear intent. While Talovic’s death in this incident prevents a definitive assessment of his intent, there is far more in his background that points to genocide trauma, rather than jihad, to explain his terrible actions.

2 Utah Tragedies Result in 10 Deaths: Remarkable Forgiveness Displayed by Survivor of One Incident

News stories today have focused on the tragic shooting spree at Trolley Square Mall in Salt Lake City, Utah, that claimed the lives of 6 people, including the shooter. The idea of being shot randomly by a shotgun-toting teenager while dining or shopping for that special Valentine’s Day gift never really crosses the mind of the average person, but that is precisely what happened to mall patrons Monday night. The fact that this teenager, armed with a shotgun, a handgun, and additional ammunition, succeeded in killing “only” 5 victims is a testament to good fortune and the swift intervention of the Salt Lake Police Department and an off-duty Ogden (UT) Police Officer. The unnamed off-duty officer, according to one report, assisted in drawing the suspect's fire away from other shoppers and returned fire with an off-duty weapon.

Descriptions of the incident include bodies lying face down where they had fallen in store entrances my readers can relate to: Pottery Barn Kids, Williams Sonoma, Hallmark Cards, and an unnamed children’s clothing store, in which the gunman was killed by responding tactical police officers and the off-duty Ogden PD officer. The Salt Lake Police and the Ogden officer should be praised for their tactical and time saving decision to skip the procedure of establishing a secure perimeter around the mall, opting instead to immediately form “Emergency Action Teams” and confront the gunman. As Salt Lake City and other communities who experience terrifying incidents like Monday’s shootings can attest, local police, though often mocked or vilified in the media and by citizens who think they will never need help, daily place their lives in jeopardy in defense of total strangers and are a most welcome sight to helpless victims.

The horrific nature of Monday’s shootings raises the inevitable question faced by families of the deceased, wounded, and psychologically terrorized: Can they ever forgive the shooter? In the aftermath of tragedy, the impulse response, fueled by adrenaline and anger, is usually to bitterly answer “no.” People cope with loss in a variety of ways, but to anyone who has been wronged, injured, or even suffered the death of loved ones at the hands of another, the following story may help salve your wounds and heal your soul.

This article, which appeared in today’s Deseret Morning News, describes another recent tragedy in Utah and is a powerful example of forgiveness where forgiveness seems impossible, and the healing that faith can bring even in the face of indescribable grief. The following are excerpts and photos courtesy of the Deseret Morning News and Deseret News photographer August Miller. Spy The News! encourages readers to follow the links to the article and read it in its entirety:

As Christopher Williams was being extricated from his overturned car onto a backboard to be taken to the hospital, he looked over at his vehicle and the car that had just crashed into him, killing his pregnant wife and two of his children.

It was at that moment Williams said he had a decision to make. That decision, he said, was to "unconditionally forgive" the person who had just caused the accident. By forgiving, Williams said the healing process could continue without being "hampered by another step."

Monday, Williams showed the great composure some had already seen since Friday night's accident as he addressed the media for the first time.

Friday's accident on 2000 East near 2700 South claimed the lives of his 41-year-old wife, Michelle, who was about six months pregnant; 11-year-old son, Ben; and 9-year-old daughter, Anna. His 6-year-old son, Sam, was taken to Primary Children's Medical Center where he was listed in stable condition Monday.

Police believe the 17-year-old driver accused of smashing into the Williams family had been drinking.

Christopher Williams has shown remarkable strength, which he claims comes partly from his LDS faith and partly from his wife. It was through his wife that he learned the power of forgiveness, he said. "This is what she would want to do," he said of forgiving the allegedly drunken teenage driver.

After 18 1/2 years of marriage, Williams called the accident and his reaction to it an "exam" from his wife "to make sure I was listening." He called his wife a humble and forgiving person whose example he tried to emulate.

As soon as Williams decided he would unconditionally forgive the other driver, he said it was at that moment he heard Sam calling to him from the back of the wrecked car.

But he admits the events of the past four days have been a bitter cup. "I know it will all be all right one day," he said. "That bitter cup doesn't have to be drunk all at once. But we know one day it will be empty." [emphasis added]

Williams said his memory of what happened that night is still a little "foggy," and he did not want to discuss details of the accident until he had a chance to talk with Salt Lake City police.

He said Sam is in stable condition with some broken bones and is being medicated, but Williams did not go into many other details about his son's condition. He added that Sam was not aware yet that his mother and two of his siblings were dead. . . .

. . . As far as the severity of the case, Miller [Salt Lake City District Attorney] said Friday's accident "ranks very high in my book." Miller called the accident a "profound tragedy" for the teen's family and Williams' family. She said she has been touched by the father's kindness toward the defendant. However, that will not influence the way she screens charges.

"It's one thing to forgive someone," she said. "It's important we hold people accountable. The victim's role is to determine how they react to forgiving. My role is to determine how to keep the community safe. . . ."

At Highland Park Elementary School where Ben was a sixth-grader and Anna was in fourth grade . . . A table was set up in the front of the school with flowers and pictures of the two classmates. Counselors were at the school all day Monday to help both teachers and students deal with the tragedy.

To help the healing process, Chris Williams has asked members of the community to conduct their own act of kindness or forgiveness by Valentine's Day, write about it and send it to his two surviving sons.

Those letters can be sent to williamsvalentine@myavant.com. [emphasis added] The Williams' 14-year-old son, Michael, was not with the family at the time of the accident.

Donations to help the Williams family can also be made at all Zions Bank locations.